JUDGE HORNER’S ROUNDUP FOR WEEK OF JULY 4TH. 2009
Beshear: Tax Cuts to Produce More State Agency Budget Reduction
Again contradicting rosy comments from some state lawmakers, Gov. Steve Beshear reiterated on June 29 prior statements that he would be forced to go beyond the 2.6% 2010 budget cuts for most state agencies in the wake of lawmakers’ tax cut orgy during the recently concluded special legislative session that concluded with a modified state budget for fiscal 2010. Unexpected tax breaks on new cars, new homes, and active duty military personnel – that legislators feasted on and can brag about – come when state agencies are already suffering from approximately 20% cuts over the last two years that will now only get worse.
Medicaid, corrections, higher education, and the main funding formula for K-12 schools, known as Support Education Excellence in Kentucky (“SEEK”), were exempted from the 2.6% reduction. About $740 million of US stimulus funds were used to help partially plug a $996 million hole in the 2010 budget that was originally passed during the 2008 legislative session. Kentucky law provides for a biennium budget instead of for annual budgets.
About $293 million of US stimulus funds remain available, but Beshear intends to use them during the 2011 budget year. “We have no intention to dip further into the stimulus funds – the 45% set aside for the next fiscal year – to make up additional cuts,” said Beshear spokesman Jay Blanton, according to a June 27 story by The Herald-Leader’s Beth Musgrave. Much of the $740 million used this year was earmarked for Medicaid and other purposes.
Blanton said that an analysis of how much state agencies will lose is currently underway with cabinet and department officials who will “make specific determinations on the size and scope of the additional cuts.” Beshear would then issue an executive order to implement the spending cuts below what the newly passed 2010 budget appropriates.
On June 29 Beshear said that it would be mid-July before administration officials could decide how much deeper state agency cuts will be, according to Musgrave’s story posed on June 29 at The Herald-Leader’s bluegrasspolitics.bloginky.com. State tax receipts through June 30 will have to be tabulated to ascertain exactly how much the state collected for the 2009 fiscal year.
(Comment: Kentuckians may be wondering whether their state will end up like California where, for example, the L.A. County Coroner announced – because of budget cuts – that it would be six weeks until toxicology and other tests would be performed on tissue from the corpse of Michael Jackson who died on June 25.)
US Sen. Jim Bunning’s (R-KY) approval leaped by 13% in June from May as he has calmed his outlandish press comments in recent weeks. According to SurveyUSA’s latest poll taken from June 12-14 and released on June 25, 41% of Kentucky voters now approve the job that he is doing, up from only 28% in a prior poll reported on May 21 by The Courier-Journal’s Joseph Gerth. Bunning’s disapproval has declined less noticeably – from 54% earlier to 51% now. WHAS-TV is a sponsor of SurveyUSA’s Kentucky polls.
A shocking oddity was revealed in the latest poll which has a 4.1% margin for error. Bunning has better numbers among registered Democrats than among Republican voters. Of Democrats, 44% approved Bunning’s job performance while only 36% of Republicans so approved. On the question of disapproval, Republicans at 54% outnumbered Democrats at 49%.
(Comment: Note that Bunning’s approval has risen over the last several weeks as he seems to have eliminated the outrageous number of comments which have been reported by the press earlier this year as his approval numbers languished. See story below.)
Adams, on Bunning’s Comments: “It's kinda like a box of chocolates.”
Kentucky political blogger David Adams is included, along with many state political reporters, on Bunning’s regular weekly telephonic press conferences which have become legendary in state political lore for their explosive content. The Associated Press’ Roger Alford interviewed Adams for his story posted on June 28 at The Cincinnati Enquirer’s nky.cincinnati.com. Adams described the press conferences this way: “It’s kinda like a box of chocolates. You never know what you’re going to get. Jim Bunning makes news every time he talks.”
Already this year, Bunning has predicted (and later apologized for) US Sup. Ct. Justice Ruth Ginsburg’s death by cancer this year; threatened to resign his seat to let Beshear appoint a Democratic replacement because US Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) was fighting his re-election next year; used profanity numerous times; and threatened to sue the National Republican Senatorial Committee if it recruited a GOP opponent against him next year.
Bunning told Alford why he conducts the calls every Tuesday: “I think it’s important to bring all those on the calls up to date on what were doing legislatively. I don’t think there’s anything more important for Kentuckians than to know what really is happening, and that’s the reason I have them.” Bunning spokesman Mike Reynard said that there has been a huge demand from reporters across the country to get on the conference calls.
(Memo to Mike: What did you expect? Everyone likes chocolates.)
For years now, Larry Forgy has occupied the duel roles of being the state’s chief GOP 1) defender of former Gov. Ernie Fletcher and 2) critic of McConnell. Forgy says that it is McConnell’s fault that Bunning is struggling so in the polls and in fund-raising. “He walked away from his friend, Ernie Fletcher, in 2007, and now he is walking away from his friend, Jim Bunning,” Forgy said, according to Brammer’s May 25 story.
Forgy was referring to the conventional feeling that McConnell recruited Fletcher to run for Governor in 2003 and then deserted Fletcher when a hiring/firing scandal engulfed Fletcher’s administration. Forgy and others blame McConnell for recruiting former US Rep. Anne Northup (R-KY3) to oppose Fletcher in the 2007 GOP primary that Fletcher won but suffered extensive political damage under Northup’s bombardment of attack ads. The party’s primary division largely led to Fletcher’s crushing defeat by about 180,000 at the hands of Beshear. McConnell and Northup are both from Louisville.
McConnell, who set off a firestorm of speculation with a January speech to the National Press Club questioning whether Bunning would run, is generally silent about the race but is thought to be attempting to dry up Bunning’s fund-raising. “He thinks he can starve Bunning into financial submission and force him out of the race,” Forgy said. “He may not be saying much about Bunning but he’s standing on his air hose.”
Forgy, a Lexington lawyer, was the heavily favored 1995 Republican gubernatorial nominee when he was upset by Democrat Paul Patton who, as then term-limited, was replaced by Fletcher in 2003. Fletcher became the state’s first Republican Governor since former Gov. Louie Nunn left office in 1971.
Louisville businessman and ex-Jefferson County GOP Chairman Bill Stone also defends Bunning. “This is a Hall of Fame pitcher who faced baseball greats, strong, tough men,” Stone said, according to Brammer’s story. “He’s not going to get out of the race simply because someone tells him to do so. If he gets out, it will be his decision.” Bunning had a long MLB career and once threw a perfect game (faced 27 batters who never reached base).
Dr. Donald Gross, chairman of the UK Political Science Dept., said that McConnell is smart to not directly criticize Bunning. “It certainly appears that McConnell is concerned about Bunning’s ability to get re-elected but you can’t find where McConnell has publicly bad-mouthed Bunning and might have to answer to that someday, especially if Bunning turns out to be the party nominee,” Gross said, according to Brammer’s story.
Dr. Rand Paul, who has formed a US Senate campaign exploratory committee, said at a June 20 Crescent Springs fund-raiser that Bunning and state Sec. of State Trey Grayson have a “deal” that Bunning will drop his re-election bid shortly before January’s filing deadline and endorse Grayson, his protégé – an arrangement that both Bunning and Grayson have denied. “If Jim Bunning doesn’t run, we need to have a primary,” Paul said, according to a story by The Cincinnati Enquirer’s Patrick Crowley posted on June 20 at nky.cincinnati.com.
Both Paul and Grayson have promised not to run against Bunning. Grayson is also raising money for a US Senate campaign exploratory committee that he has formed, and Bunning even admitted that he suggested the idea to Grayson. Paul, 46, is a Bowling Green ophthalmologist.
Bill Johnson, an unknown Elkton businessman, has formally declared for the Republican nomination saying that Bunning has been in office long enough and should retire. Perennial GOP candidate Roger Thoney has also said that he will run in the Republican primary next year. Both Johnson and Thoney are predicted not to become competitive candidates.
But Bunning, 77, may yet draw strong opposition from former US Ambassador to Latvia Cathy Bailey of Louisville, who has been a prolific GOP fund-raiser. Bailey has said repeatedly that she is considering the race, and will evaluate her possible entry into it after Bunning’s second calendar quarter fund-raising report becomes public early in July. Bailey’s husband, Irving, is the retired chairman of Providian Corp. Cathy Bailey is thought to be capable of largely self-funding her race, if necessary.
Rand Paul, 46, expects to capitalize on the national fund-raising base built by his father, US Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX), during his campaign for the presidential nomination last year. Ron Paul, who raised more than $30 million, kept campaigning until the end of the Republican National Convention until it officially nominated US Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) – this despite the fact that McCain’s pledged delegate count months earlier far exceeded the minimum necessary for the nomination. Father and son apparently wear with pride their self-appointed status of being the most “hard right” of all conservative Republicans.
Democratic US Senate hopefuls include Lt. Gov. Daniel Mongiardo, Atty.-Gen. Jack Conway, and a third candidate who is not expected to be competitive – retired US Customs official Darlene Fitzgerald Price of Whitley City. Bunning narrowly defeated Mongiardo – then a little-known state Senator – by only about 23,000 votes (1.4%) in 2004 in his first re-election race. Bunning was elected in 1998 when former US Senate Majority Whip Wendell Ford (D-KY) retired.
The GOP’s 10-year grip – that now stands at 21-16-1 – on the state Senate will be tested next year as Republicans have twice as many seats at risk than do Democrats, and the outcome will be pivotal as legislative redistricting looms in 2011 or 2012. The GOP’s electoral emergence in Kentucky during the1990’s culminated in 1999 with outright party control in the state’s upper chamber and the 2000 election of Sen. David Williams (R-Burkesville) as the first Republican president of the body in decades. Some of the following information is attributed to an analysis by The Kentucky Gazette’s Sam Edelen in a story published on Jan. 28.
The US Constitution mandates a decennial census be taken, with the next one scheduled to begin on Apr. 1, 2010. The US Census Bureau by law must deliver the results to each state by March 2011 so the General Assembly will not have the time in its odd-year, 30-day legislative session that year to accomplish a legislative redistricting as ordered by prior US Supreme Court decisions. This means that either lawmakers must deal with the thorny issue in a special session in 2011 – if Beshear decides to call such a session – or in the regular, even-year, 60-day session in 2012. In any event, what happens at the polls next year will have a huge impact on the final redistricting plan.
Of the 19 even-numbered Senate districts at stake next year, Republicans must defend 12 seats while Democrats have only six at risk. The 19th and remaining seat at issue in the 38-member body will be the one held by the chamber’s lone independent, Bob Leeper of Paducah, who is both a former Democrat and a former Republican. However, Leeper sits in the GOP Senate caucus and, in all likelihood, would be expected to cast a vote for the Republican leadership team to organize and control the Senate’s internal processes.
Edelen’s analysis revealed that, of the 12 GOP Senate seats and Leeper’s at stake, only Williams represents a majority-Republican district in terms of party registration. Thus, other incumbent Republicans or other party nominees and Leeper who decide to seek re-election next year will have to extensively court Democratic voters.
Democrats now hold a commanding 65-35 margin in the state House and are not likely to lose their majority advantage there next year when all 100 seats appear on the ballot for voter decisions across the state. Thus, a re-run of the last redistricting cycle may once again occur. If the parties retain their respective majorities, then each chamber can re-draw districts again to make it just that much more difficult for the other party to overturn the existing majority.
One unknown factor is the political mood of Kentuckians next year in what may be a continuation of this most volatile economic climate. Democrats gained a total of 55 US House seats in the 2006 and 2008 election cycles – including 24 on Nov. 4. Past electoral history suggests that it is extremely unlikely that Democrats will increase their current number or even hold what they have now in the US House. National issues are uppermost on voters’ minds right now, and if Pres. Barack Obama and US House Democrats don’t get employment back up, Kentucky voters may take it out on Democrats all the way down the 2010 election ballot.
In 1994 – in the mid-point of former Pres. Bill Clinton’s first term – the “Republican Revolution” occurred with the GOP picking up an astounding net gain of 54 US House seats in just that one election, returning the party to majority control in the lower chamber for the first time in 40 years. And in comparison, Democrats needed two elections in 2006 and 2008 to pick up 55 seats. Thus, the pendulum should swing back unless economic conditions significantly improve.
Another factor that has skyrocketed to the top of voters’ attention is the decade-long effort to expand gambling in the Commonwealth, and the perception that Republicans, as a party, are against the issue. The effort reached its high-water mark so far when the state House passed 52-45 in a recently concluded special legislative session a bill to legalize slot machines at the state’s horse racing tracks. The bill was sponsored by House Speaker Greg Stumbo (D-Prestonsburg) who had previously failed to get similar legislation past House committee approval in prior legislative sessions.
As soon as House floor action was completed, Williams said that you could go ahead and “stick a fork in it” because there was no way it would pass the Senate. The bill was summarily killed 5-10 in the Senate Appropriations and Revenue (“A & R”) Committee – but did not reach the Senate floor – prompting outrage by Beshear and the state’s equine industry who said that all of the General Assembly’s elected lawmakers should have the opportunity to vote on the proposal. The Kentucky Equine Education Project (“KEEP”), which lobbied heavily for the legislation, has publicly begun to target certain Republican senators for defeat next year.
The purpose of the bill was to furnish more money from the proceeds of expanded gambling to enhance a) purses at state tracks and 2) breeders’ incentives as a means of competing with neighboring states’ whose tracks pay winning horses much more money and which even pay extra bonuses to winning horses bred in those states. The current situation has resulted in horse owners and trainers moving their operations out of Kentucky, taking jobs with them, and the threat of breeding operations also moving.
Republicans, however, are not totally against expanded gambling. “It’s a very frustrating thing,” said Bill Farish, whose father, William S. Farish III, was US Ambassador to the United Kingdom from 2001-2004 under former Pres. George W. Bush, according to a June 28 by The Courier-Journal’s Gregory A. Hall. “There’re clearly people in the legislature that don’t care about the industry and they’re just as happy to see it leave.” Farish’s family owns the iconic Lane’s End thoroughbred stud farm near Versailles for which Turfway Park’s top Grade II stakes race for KY Derby hopefuls in mid-March is named. The Farish family for years has been one of the state’s principal financial supporters of the GOP.
Stone weighed in on the issue by saying that he had urged Williams to tie the slots issue to other pro-business provisions as an economic stimulus. (Stumbo attempted in a fashion to do this by tying the proposal to debt service to bond about $1.3 billion in new school construction across the state.) “I think it’s time to say to the horse industry, ‘If this is what you want, fine. Take it.’ And we don’t want to hear from you for another 10 years,” Stone said, according to Gerth’s June 28 story.
KEEP executive director Patrick Neely, a Republican and Northup’s former top aide, targeted two GOP senators during a June 24 post-bill defeat “rally” at Keeneland – Sens. Ernie Harris of Crestwood and Alice Forgy Kerr of Lexington. The event drew a crowd estimated between 1,000 and 1,500 persons. Both Harris and Kerr voted against the proposal on the Senate A & R Committee. “Elections matter,” Neely told the crowd, according to a June 28 column by The Herald-Leader’s Larry Dale Keeling. “Who we have representing us in Frankfort matters. We cannot forget that people like (Sen.) Alice Forgy Kerr, who represents so many horse farms and Keeneland, voted no. My own state senator, Ernie Harris, who represents Jefferson County — home of Churchill Downs — and Oldham County with so many horse farms, also voted no.”
Neely told Gerth that it was too early to decide which Republicans that KEEP would put in their sights. Neely also said it was premature to decide whether GOP or Democratic pro-gambling opponents for these targeted Republican incumbents – or both – would be recruited and supported by KEEP.
Sen. Damon Thayer (R-Georgetown), formerly both a Turfway Park and Breeders Cup official, does not run next year, but told Gerth that it won’t do “the horse industry any good to take a scorched-earth approach in the 2010 elections.” Thayer is not on the A & R Committee but is on record in opposition to the proposed slots-at-tracks by statute legislation – instead insisting that any expansion of gambling must be pursuant to a favorable vote in a state-wide referendum to amend the state constitution to allow expanded gambling.
Thayer rejects the legal opinion – now widely held – that the state constitution does not disallow the legislature from expanding and regulating additional forms of gambling under its general legislative “police powers.” Even Williams adheres to this legal opinion and says a state constitutional amendment by voter referendum is not necessary. Williams, a widely known casino gambler, says that he has no moral objections to gambling but opposes it as a “social policy,” saying it would lead to more crime and bankruptcies, and has sworn to legislatively oppose it.
One GOP state senator recently announced that he is retiring. State Sen. Gary Tapp (R-Shelbyville) said that he would not seek a third term next year. Tapp served two terms in the House from Shelbyville before defeating former state Rep. Larry Belcher (D-Shepherdsville), now deceased, by almost 4,000 votes in 2002. Tapp ran unopposed for his second term in 2006, and has already endorsed Shelby County farmer Paul Hornback as his GOP successor, according to Edelen’s story. Hornback owns a 2,400-acre cattle and tobacco farm. The district includes Shelby, Spencer, and Bullitt counties.
Senate Majority Leader Dan Kelly (R-Springfield) told Edelen that he is interested in a Circuit Court position that was vacated in January by Circuit Judge Doughlas George, who is still presiding in that circuit as a “senior status” judge. It is expected that this vacancy, and others like it across the state, will be filled soon since the new fiscal year began on July 1 and new funding is now available. If Kelly left his Senate seat, a special election would be held before the regular legislative session begins in January 2010.
Former Rep. Jodie Haydon (D-Bardstown), a long-time expanded gambling supporter, told Gerth that he is interested in Kelly’s seat. So is Rep. David Floyd (R-Bardstown) who voted in favor of the slots legislation on the House floor. It is likely that both party nominees would come from Nelson County which represents about 35% of the district’s voters who also come from Marion, Mercer, Taylor, and Washington counties.
Senate A & R Committee Chm. Charlie Borders (R-Russell), who voted to defeat the slots bill in committee, told Gerth that he is not sure whether he will seek re-election. Rep. Robin Webb (D-Grayson), who voted for the slots bill on the House floor, said she is being encouraged by various Democrats to run for Borders’ seat if he retires.
June 27 – The Courier-Journal: “In league with secrecy”
“Having been embarrassed by The Lexington Herald-Leader’s disclosure of its spending practices and executive wage scale, the Kentucky League of Cities has decided to make matters worse.
“Instead of promising to make changes and letting the public have full access to its decision-making, the league has declared itself a private agency and has announced it no longer will produce documents under the Kentucky Open Records Act.
“There’s a smart move. What better way to bolster public confidence than to shut the public out?...
“KLC president Sylvia Lovely was not available for comment. Small wonder. But what a shame.
“Fairly or unfairly, this whole mess has sullied the reputation of someone who long has been considered one of Kentucky’s leadership assets. Having opened a June 19 board meeting to the media, and having suspended such practices as allowing league-paid travel for spouses of its executives and holding league functions at a restaurant her husband co-owned, Ms. Lovely was moving to restore public confidence. Now the group seems to be heading in the other direction.”
June 29 – CNHI News Service’s Ronnie Ellis at thetimestribune.com: “Listen to what they say, but watch what they do”
“Mercifully, it’s over. The special session which was supposed to respond to a budget crisis but turned into a battle over electronic slots at horse tracks finally ended Wednesday, 10 days and $600,000 or so after it began.
“It reminded me of something a journalism instructor at Western Kentucky University told me 35 years ago: ‘Listen to what they say, but watch what they do.’
“They said Kentucky faced a budget crisis. Then they proceeded to give tax breaks to homebuyers, automobile owners and military personnel – defensible perhaps if affordable but as Rep. Harry Moberly, D-Richmond, said ‘irresponsible’ without a way to pay for those tax breaks in a time of fiscal ‘crisis.’ There were more treats in the economic incentives bill which passed both chambers – creating further pressure on the state treasury….”
|
LawReader Time Keeper
Lawreader:
