LawReader : OUR MAIN - LAW DIGEST INDEX : LAWREADER TIPS & TOPICS : MORE HOME PAGE - 2006 : Compare the Election Polls to the Actual Election Results in the Primary Election May 22nd.

first poll released after may 22nd. primary:

Survey USA: Beshear 62%, Fletcher 34%

Survey USA has just released its first poll of the 2007 general election and it reveal a 28 point lead for Beshear.

Beshear (D) 62%
Fletcher (R) 34%
Undecided 4%

:

Among Females: Beshear 69, Fletcher 27

Among Independents: Beshear 52, Fletcher 41

Among Republicans: Fletcher 60, Beshear 36

Among Democrats: Beshear 86, Fletcher 12

Among Northup Republicans: Beshear 51, Fletcher 36

Among Harper Republicans: Fletcher 51, Beshear 49

Among Fletcher Republicans: Fletcher 80, Beshear 20

Among Beshear Democrats: Beshear 98, Fletcher 2

which election poll was the most accurate? lawreader compares the polls.

Have you ever wondered just how accurate the political polls are?   LawReader has charted the WHAS/USA poll, and the BLUEGRASS poll, against the actual results of the election. We must note that the two polls also included undecided and of course in the actual results there are no undecided voters.



                                      Republican primary

ACTUAL ELECTION RESULTS

50.1% FLETCHER

36.5% NORTHUP

13.4% HARPER

WHAS/Survey USA May 21

44% Fletcher

34% Northup

17% Harper

BLUEGRASS POLL MAY 17

41% Fletcher

25.8% Northup

9.9% Harper

Fletcher and Northup each did better than the two polls, and Harper did better than one and worse on one poll.



                                            DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY

ACTUAL ELECTION

RESULTS

40.9% BESHEAR

21.4% LUNSFORD

17.5% HENRY

13%

Richards

6.1%

Galbraith

1.1%

Hensley

WHAS/Survey USA May 21

32%

Beshear

23%

Lunsford

17% Henry

12% Richards

7% Galbraith

1% Hensley

BLUEGRASS POLL MAY 17

27.4%

Beshear

21.1% Lunsford

12.8% Henry

7.3%

Richards

4.1 Galbraith

.05% Hensley

Beshear did better than both polls.

Lunsford did better than one poll and worse than one poll.

Henry did better than both polls.

Richards did better than both polls.

Galbraith did better than one poll and worse than one poll.

Hensly did better than both polls.

The most accurate poll was the WHAS/Survey USA poll. Only in the Harper race was the Bluegrass Poll more accurate than the WHAS/Survey poll, and only by 1/10^th. of a percent.

The final poll results released on may 21 the day before the primary election revealed mostly unchanged results over the poll released on may 15-17.

A WHAS 11/Survey USA poll out Monday May 21^st, 2007 with virtually no changes in the democratic or republican races for governor.

The poll was taken friday through sunday and included the names of the full tickets. 635 democrats who said they were likely to vote on tuesday and 465 republicans who identified themselves as likely voters, were polled. The only movement since the last Survey USA poll was released last tuesday was from Billy Harper who moved up 3 points.

Republicans:

44% Fletcher
34% Northup
17% Harper
5% Und.

Democrats:

32% Beshear
23% Lunsford
17% Henry
12% Richards
7% Galbraith
1% Hensley
6% Und.

On the republican side, Fletcher continues to best Northup in every section of Kentucky except Louisville and surrounding counties. In the democratic race, Henry dropped one point (well within the margin of error) but lost traction in the Louisville area. Henry was getting 33% of the Louisville area vote in the previous poll, just 27% in the new poll.

Results released may 15 - May 17, 2007:

Bluegrass Poll vs. Survey USA Poll. Fletcher, Beshear grab lead BUT LARGE UNDECIDED PLACES ALL RACES IN QUESTION.

The Bluegrass Poll was released May 17. It covered the days of May 10-14 in the Democratic Poll and May 10-15 in the Republican Poll.

REPUBLICAN POLL:

The Bluegrass Poll shows that Governor Fletcher is drawing 41% of the potential Republican vote and with a margin of error of 5.2 per cent. This means that the actual results of the May 22^nd. Election could result in a run off election between Fletcher and challenger Ann Northup (25.8%). This possibility is made more possible by the fact that 17.8 percent of likely Republican voters still hadn’t made up their mind as of May 15^th.

In the Survey USA Poll released on May 15^th., Northup’s support was 34% .

Fletcher’s support was listed at 44% on May 15^th. If Northup picks up five per cent and Fletcher loses 5 per cent then you have a dead heat, and Fletcher would be forced into a runoff.

The Bluegrass Poll had Paducah businessman Billy Harper trailing with 9.9 percent. While some have speculated that Harper might decide to be the Kingmaker and withdraw and endorse Northup, that isn’t likely to happen in view of the vast sums he is still spending on television advertising.

If you put both polls together, it shows a tightening race. Both the margin of potential polling error, and the large body of undecided voters could make for a surprise next Tuesday. We recall last falls Congressional election when some polls had Northup up 8% and she ended up losing by about 4%. A ten point difference in this week’s polling and next week’s election is well within the margin of error.

DEMOCRATIC POLL:

In the Democratic polling of the Bluegrass Poll, Steve Beshear was listed at 27.4% while in the Survey USA Poll released on May 15^th. he was listed with 32% of the vote after having quickly picked up 10% upon the withdrawal of Jonathan Miller. .

Bruce Lunsford is listed in second place in the Bluegrass Poll with 21.1 percent.

Former Lt. Gov. Steve Henry (dropping from first place just four weeks ago) is now third with 12.8 percent of the vote and House Speaker Jody Richards is next, with 7.3 percent.

Perennial candidate Gatewood Galbraith polled 4.1 percent and Harlan demolition contractor Otis Hensley has 0.5 percent.

The undecided were 22.5 percent of Democratic voters. The margin of error was 4.9 per cent in the Bluegrass Poll.

When the undecided is larger than the per cent of voters for the second place candidate, things may be considered to be volatile. It is still possible that the Democrats could avoid a runoff election if Beshear gets just 8% more than he is currently credited with in the Survey USA poll.

Of all candidates in the polling, Beshear appears to have the best momentum going into Tuesday’s primary election. Northup and Beshear are the only other candidates with positive movement.

www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportEmail.aspx?g=13ebe78f-20b9-487d-947e-68b17ea51b12 Link to complete May 15 Survey USA poll.

Democrats - Beshear Lunsford Runoff Likely: In a Democratic Primary for Governor of Kentucky today, 5/15/07, one week to the 5/22/07 vote, the ticket of Steve Beshear and Dan Mongiardo leap to a first-ever first-place finish, according to a SurveyUSA poll of likely Kentucky Democratic primary voters, conducted exclusively for WHAS-TV Louisville and WCPO-TV in Cincinnati. Today, it's Beshear/Mongiardo 32%, the ticket of Bruce Lunsford and Greg Stumbo in 2nd place at 23%. Neither ticket appears likely to reach the 40% needed to avoid a 6/26/07 runoff. A five-week head-to-head runoff campaign between Beshear and Lunsford is likely to begin the morning after the 5/15/07 Primary. The ticket of Steve Henry and Renee True today finishes in 3rd place at 18%. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA tracking poll released two weeks ago on 5/1/07, Beshear is up 9 points, from 23% to 32%. Lunsford is down 6 points, from 29% to 23%. Henry is unchanged at 18%. Beshear has traction among men, in North Central KY and in Western KY. Among men, Beshear is up 9 points from 2 weeks ago, Lunsford is down 12 points, a swing of 21 points to Beshear. In North Central KY, Beshear is up 13 points, from 3rd place 2 weeks ago to 1st place today. In Western KY, Beshear is up 10 points, Lunsford is down 10 points, a swing of 20 points to Beshear. In four SurveyUSA tracking polls beginning 03/06/07, Beshear has polled 15% (2nd place), 15% (3rd place), 23% (2nd place) and 32% today (1st place). Henry leads in greater Louisville. The lead in this contest has changed hands 3 times in 4 tracking polls. With 6 surviving andidates, and the lack of a clear frontrunner, a runoff appears inevitable.

Republicans -- Fletcher Continues to Lead Northup, but Can He Avoid a Runoff? In a Republican Primary for Governor

of Kentucky today, 5/15/07, one week to the 5/22/07 vote, incumbent Republican Ernie Fletcher and running mate Robbie Rudolph appear to fend-off a challenge from former U.S. Congresswoman Anne Northup and her running mate Jeff Hoover, and may have just enough support to avoid a runoff, according to a SurveyUSA poll of likely Republican primary voters, conducted exclusively for WHAS-TV Louisville and WCPO-TV in Cincinnati. The ticket of Fletcher-Rudolphgets 44% today. The ticket of Northup-Hoover gets 34% today. In four SurveyUSA tracking polls, Fletcher has never trailed.

His support was 33% on 3/6/07, 40% on 4/3/07, 46% on 5/1/07 and 44% today, 5/15/07. Northup has never led.

Her support was 31% on both 3/6/07 and 4/3/07, 34% on both 5/1/07 and 5/15/07. Though the contest is fiercely fought, the polling shows remarkable stability, in stark contrast to the Democratic Primary battle. In no demographic subpopulation

where Fletcher led two weeks ago does Northup lead today. In no demographic subpopulation where Northup led two weeks ago does Fletcher lead today. Fletcher leads by 35 points in Eastern KY; Fletcher leads by 24 points in North Central KY;

Fletcher leads by 19 points in Western KY. Fletcher needs strong turnout in these regions to finish with more than 40% of the vote, which is what's needed to avoid a head-to-head runoff with Northup. Northup leads by 36 points in Greater Louisville.

She needs exceptionally strong turnout in Louisville to drag Fletcher below 40%, and force a runoff without Billy Harper in the race. The ticket of Harper-Wilson is at 14% in today's SurveyUSA poll. To the extent Harper's support is an anti-Fletcher

vote, Harper supporters would benefit Northup in a runoff. In the past two weeks, Northup has gained some ground among men.

On 5/1/07, she trailed Fletcher by 15 among men, today she trails by 8.

A WHAS 11/Survey USA poll out Monday May 21^st, 2007 with virtually no changes in the democratic or republican races for governor.

The poll was taken friday through sunday and included the names of the
full tickets. 635 democrats who said they were likely to vote on tuesday
and 465 republicans who identified themselves as likely voters, were
polled. The only movement since the last Survey USA poll was released
last tuesday was from Billy Harper who moved up 3 points.

Republicans:

44% Fletcher
34% Northup
17% Harper
5% Und.

Democrats:

32% Beshear
23% Lunsford
17% Henry
12% Richards
7% Galbraith
1% Hensley
6% Und.

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