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JUDGE HORNER’S ROUNDUP FOR WEEK OF FEB. 2, 2008
Beshear Budget: “Worst Case Scenario” To Be Reality
Williams, on Beshear Mentioning Casinos in Budget Address
Williams Asks for Criminal Inquiry Against Mongiardo
US Rep. Lewis Retires
Thieneman Drops Bid Against Northup
Expected Competitive Primary Races
Democrats’ Chances to Gain State Senate Control: Slim and None
Newspaper Editorial Comments
Political Analysts’ Comments
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Beshear Budget: “Worst Case Scenario” To Be Reality
Gov. Steve Beshear’s grim budget preparation warning several weeks ago and directives for state agencies to prepare 12% spending cuts became a reality on Jan. 29 as he announced his biennial $18.5 billion budget proposal to a joint session of the General Assembly. State agencies and higher education will have to endure 12% spending reductions but the K-12 SEEK formula for public schools will be maintained at current levels. Also, Medicaid will receive an increase in order for it to attract the US funds that are available under a formula subject to matching state funds.
Beshear’s proposal will undergo extensive review by lawmakers and may be changed in its entirety. The official revenue projection – prepared by the statutorily-based Consensus Forecasting Group – for the 2009 fiscal year is $580 million less than the spending authorization for the 2008 fiscal year. The deficit grows to about $900 million when fiscal year 2010’s projected revenue is added in to the two-year budget plan. Thus, spending must be drastically curtailed. But Kentucky is nowhere nearly as bad off as many state governments on the east and west coasts as the sub-prime mortgage crisis is far worse. California’s revenue shortfall for the 2009 fiscal year alone is $14 billion.
“I consider this the greatest challenge of my 29 or 30 years in office,” said state House Appropriations and Revenue Committee chairman Harry Moberly (D-Richmond), according to a Jan. 30 story by The Herald-Leader’s John Stamper. State House Speaker Jody Richards said that a cigarette tax increase “is gaining a lot of support in the House.” If doubled from the current 30-cents-per-pack rate, an additional $112 million would be raised from the tax, according to Stamper.
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Williams, on Beshear Mentioning Casinos in Budget Address
State Senate Pres. David Williams (R-Burkesville), when asked by WHAS-TV’s Mark Hebert what he thought about Beshear finally mentioning in his budget address casino gambling as a budget fix, said, “Well, he had to talk about the crazy aunt in the attic sometime.” Williams, who is personally opposed to casinos because of their social costs, said that he still doesn’t detect any enthusiasm in the Senate for allowing voters to decide the issue in a state-wide referendum, according to Hebert’s story posted on his blog on Jan. 30 at whas11.com.
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Williams Asks for Criminal Inquiry Against Mongiardo
Williams has accused Lt. Gov. Daniel Mongiardo of unspecified criminal conduct and has asked state Atty.-Gen. Jack Conway to investigate. Williams says that Mongiardo is threatening local county officials into supporting Democrat Scott Alexander who is in a highly competitive campaign in a special state Senate District-30 election called for Feb. 5. The GOP nominee is state Rep. Brandon Smith (R-Hazard). The special election is necessary to fill the seat that Mongiardo vacated – once he became Lieutenant Governor – in a district including Bell, Harlan, Leslie, and Perry counties. Both candidates are from Hazard and have run against each other twice before in House District-84 that contains Perry and a small part of Harlan counties. Smith unseated Alexander, who held the seat, in 2000 and then held off a challenge by Alexander in 2006 to regain the seat.
“I believe that the activities of individuals over there and the threats that are being made and the activities…Every time I turn around, I hear about him calling the county judges and yelling at them and somebody saying they are not going to get any positive activity from GOLD (the Governor’s Office for Local Development),” Williams said about Mongiardo, according to a story by The Herald-Leader’s Jack Brammer that was posted on Jan. 25 at polwatchers.typepad.com. “I think the attorney general needs to look into the activities that are going on. I don’t think it’s appropriate and probably not legal for you to go over as the sitting lieutenant governor of the Commonwealth of Kentucky and threaten county officials and folks if they don’t support your candidate.”
Mongiardo told Brammer that Williams’ remarks were “like Dick Cheney teaching gun safety” and said that he had never threatened anyone. “I’ve not intimidated anybody. I have been down there quite a bit and I plan on doing a lot more,” Mongiardo said, according to a Jan. 26 story by The Courier-Journal’s Tom Loftus. “I believe that all of Kentucky would be better off with someone that would work with our current administration than someone that would work against us with David Williams.”
State Senate Minority Leader Ed Worley (D-Richmond) released this statement in part concerning the situation. “…This is one more example of David Williams being disconnected from mountain people. The people from Eastern Kentucky appreciate Daniel Mongiardo for all that he has done for them. He understands the struggles that they deal with everyday and has been a passionate advocate for their needs. Scott Alexander will be equally as passionate in pursuing what is best for the people of the 30th District. This is one more example of the Republicans being willing to do anything to win, with personal attacks being their favorite weapon.”
Conway spokeswoman Allison Martin said that Conway has agreed to meet with Williams to hear Williams’ accusations.
Stamper reported on Feb. 1 at polwatchers that Alexander is running a TV ad quoting Williams, in remarks after Beshear’s State of the Commonwealth address, saying that Beshear would make his “first trip out of the state to Bell and Harlan counties” – in an obvious reference to helping Alexander’s campaign. (Polwatchers has a link to the Youtube video.) Williams told Stamper that he meant to say “out in the state,” but “muffled” some words. Williams said, “What they’re trying to do is demonize me.”
Hard feelings among certain Democrats may doom Alexander’s chances. Former Rep. Roger Noe (D-Harlan) competed for the Democratic nomination but lost out to Alexander in what Noe claims was a wrongful process that violated state Democratic Party rules. Noe claims that the rules require that members of each of the four counties’ party executive committees should have been allowed to vote in the nomination process. Instead, only the counties’ party chairmen voted, and they nominated Alexander. Noe even wrote a letter to The Hazard Post’s editor – a copy of which was posted in Hebert’s story posted on Jan. 31 on his blog. Noe’s letter is quoted in part as follows:
“…I’m Roger Noe, a lifelong Democrat from Harlan. I tried to become your candidate to fill the seat vacated by Daniel Mongiardo. What I didn’t realize was that Governor Beshear, Lt. Governor Mongiardo, Leo Haggerty, and Chester Jones had already chosen the Democratic candidate, and they did it in the most dishonest way possible, they rigged the election against Democratic policy…
“…They have insulted the intelligence of the Democrats in our counties, and are strong arming public officials for support in furthering their dishonest agenda.
“We Democrats were deceived by Beshear/Mongiardo, and the rest of the state should be prepared for the same treatment….”
(Disclosure: This columnist has contributed $500 to Alexander’s campaign.)
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US Rep. Lewis Retires
The shocker of the annual candidate filing suspense – leading up this year to Jan. 29 – came only minutes before the 4:00p deadline when the wife of Daniel London, chief of staff for US Rep. Ron Lewis (R-KY2), filed both London’s declaration of candidacy for Lewis’ seat and Lewis’s withdrawal declaration (Lewis had filed in December). The Herald-Leader’s Ryan Alessi then got a phone interview with Lewis. “I’m one of the few still standing,” Lewis said about the Republicans left in the US House from the 1994 “Contract with America” GOP revolution when the country’s voters reversed some 40 years of Democratic House control. “I had been thinking about it for a while, but not real seriously…I’m part of the old guard. Now it’s time for new blood to step in,” Lewis said, according to Alessi’s story posted on Jan. 29 at polwatchers. “We made some good changes. But it kind of ran out of steam.” Lewis told Alessi that he is enthusiastically backing London.
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Thieneman Drops Bid Against Northup
Louisville developer Chris Thieneman has abruptly dropped his week-long race for the GOP’s nomination to run to unseat freshman US Rep. John Yarmuth (D-KY3) – a path that would have required him to first go through former US Rep. Anne Northup (R-KY3) who lost the seat to Yarmuth by about 6,000 votes in 2006. As soon as former Asst. US Atty. Erwin Roberts withdrew from the Republican primary about two weeks ago, both Northup and Thieneman let the press know they were interested. Thieneman first pulled the trigger by filing on Jan. 24, and now it looks like he was only running a bluff that Northup called by filing on Jan. 29.
Thieneman, 42, told WHAS radio talk show hostess Francene Cucinello on Jan. 31 that he was switching back to the Democratic Party after having been a Republican for about six years. Moreover, he said that he was endorsing Yarmuth’s re-election effort. “He hasn’t done a bad job,” Thieneman said about Yarmuth, according to Alessi’s Jan. 31 story at polwatchers.
Thieneman, an ex-pro football player, is known for an aggressive style in everything he does. He has already charged that Northup supporters have “threatened” him to get out of the race. Larry Cox, general manager of US Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell’s (R-KY) Louisville office, was fingered by Thieneman for making threats. McConnell’s office released this statement pertaining to Cox: “Mr. Thieneman called Larry Cox on Thursday night after he filed for election, and at no time did Larry discourage his participation,” the statement said. “Chris is a talented young man with a bright future.” Alessi’s Jan. 31 story at polwatchers reported that Thieneman, on being a Republican, said, “It’s that bad. It really is.”
Jefferson County GOP Chm. Jack Richardson described Thieneman’s behavior as a “public meltdown,” according to a Feb. 1 story by The Courier-Journal’s Joseph Gerth. Of Thieneman’s move back to the Democratic Party, Richardson said, “He’s their problem now.”
Thieneman’s brief, upstart bid against Northup could be symptomatic of a still simmering feud between eastern county Republican leaders – including McConnell, Northup, and Richardson – and southern and southwestern Republicans who resent control of the local party for so long by the “upper crust” east side faction. Gerth interviewed David Toborowsky, the son-in-law of Sen. Dan Seum (R-Louisville) who has developed a populist, blue-collar persona for about 20 years first as a Democrat and now as a Republican lawmaker. Toborowsky told Gerth that Republican activists in the southern and southwestern areas of the county feel “ostracized” by party leaders.
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Expected Competitive Primary Races
The following is a list of May 20 primary races in both parties that are expected to be competitive. Other primary races feature incumbents with opposition not expected to be serious.
Republicans:
US House-2: London will face state Sen. Brett Guthrie (R-Bowling Green) who apparently heard about Lewis’ retirement plans in advance and had his filing documents filled out and ready at the last minute to file. Guthrie is in his third term and was re-elected without opposition in 2002 and 2006. London has never before run for elected office.
State Senate-11: The race to replace retiring Sen. Dick Roeding (R-Lakeside Park) includes former state Rep. Charlie Walton (R-Florence) and Roeding-endorsed John Schickel. Walton, 60, gave up re-election to his House seat to try Roeding in the 2004 primary, and lost by just over 1,000 votes. This district includes all of Boone and Gallatin, and part of Kenton counties. Schickel is a former US Marshal, and Walton is an elementary school principal.
State House-63: Rep. Alecia Webb-Edgington (R-Fort Wright) won a Jan. 8 special election to succeed former Rep. Jon Draud (R-Edgewood) who vacated the seat to become state Education Commissioner in November. Will Terwort provides the competition and has already picked up a few GOP endorsements, but Webb-Edgington has many more at this point. Terwort of Fort Mitchell is a member of the Kenton County Republican Executive Committee and is from a long-time political family. The district contains the southern suburbs of Kenton County.
Democrats:
US Senate: Eight Democrats have entered the primary for the right to take on McConnell who is seeking his fifth term. Multi-millionaire Louisville businessman Bruce Lunsford will be making his third race for office in the last five years. Lunsford started out but withdrew four days before the 2003 gubernatorial primary. He finished as the runner-up to Beshear in last year’s primary. After spending about $14 million on his two runs for Governor, Lunsford will begin this race as the presumed favorite for the Democratic nomination with far more name ID and financial resources than any of the other candidates.
The others are Louisville lawyer Andrew Horne, an Iraq War veteran; millionaire Louisville businessman Greg Fischer; Prospect pain specialist Dr. Michael Cassaro; Glasgow perennial candidate David Williams; Kenneth Stepp of Manchester, James Rice of Campbellsville, and David Wylie of Harrodsburg. Horne’s only prior race ended with his defeat by Yarmuth in the 2006 congressional primary.
Beshear released a Jan. 29 statement in which he said that he would not campaign for Lunsford but that he has actively been encouraging Lunsford since December to make the race. “I felt that he had name recognition, the financial resources and the ability to appeal to a large cross-section of Kentuckians, Republicans, Democrats, and Independents alike, all of which would make him an exceptionally strong candidate,” Beshear’s statement said in part.
(Disclosure: This columnist is supporting Lunsford in the US Senate race and signed Lunsford’s candidacy filing declaration.)
US House-2: State Sen. David Boswell (D-Owensboro) and Daviess County Judge Reid Haire have filed for the right to run for the seat that Lewis is giving up. Boswell was elected to the state Senate in 1990 and was re-elected to a fifth four-year term in 2006. Boswell is a former state-wide-elected Commissioner of Agriculture.
State Senate-1: This western-most Senate district features a high-profile primary race between Mayfield lawyer Carroll Hubbard Jr. and former state Court of Appeals Judge Rick Johnson. The winner will face state Sen. Ken Winters (R-Murray). Hubbard was once the Senator from the area before unseating former US Rep. Frank Stubblefield (D-KY1) of Murray in 1974. Hubbard’s 18-year congressional tenure was stained by a criminal conviction involving the 1992 US House bank fraud scandal and other charges. He was stripped of his law license in the early 1990’s, but years later was able to reactivate it. Hubbard received a pardon by former Gov. Paul Patton which has enabled Hubbard to run for and serve in elective office.
Hubbard moved from Paducah to Mayfield, his original home, about a year ago after unsuccessfully attempting to knock off Sen. Bob Leeper (I-Paducah) in the Senate District-2 election in 2006. Leeper barely got by Hubbard by 58 votes with the exact count at 15,497-15,439. The GOP nominee was far back with 6,792. Leeper began his career as a Democrat, switched to Republican, and now is a registered independent.
Johnson was an appellate jurist for quite some years before losing a 2006 race for the state Supreme Court. The Senate district’s counties – Calloway, Carlisle, Fulton, Graves, Hickman, Lyon, and Trigg – are all included in the state’s First Appellate District that Johnson represented on the Court of Appeals.
State Senate-9: Two connected Democrats from Glasgow are competing to succeed state Sen. Richie Sanders (R-Franklin) who will retire this year after 12 years in the Senate and six years in the House. John Rogers resigned as chairman of the state Registry of Election Finance last year to make the race. Steve Newberry is the brother of Lexington Mayor Jim Newberry. The district includes Allen, Barren, Edmonson, Green, Metcalfe, and Simpson counties.
State House District-72: Rep. Sannie Overly (D-Paris) won a Jan. 8 special election to succeed former Rep. Carolyn Belcher (D-Owingsville) who vacated the seat after winning a special election on Nov. 6 to become Bath County Judge – a position made vacant by the resignation of the ex-judge. Overly has drawn two opponents including former Rep. Jim Lovell (D-Paris). Roy Baber has also filed for the Democratic nomination. The district contains the counties of Bath, Bourbon, Nicholas, and a small slice of northern Fayette County.
State House District-95: Former House Majority Leader Greg Stumbo (D-Prestonsburg) is seeking his old House seat again after serving a term as state Attorney-General. Former Rep. Chuck Meade (D-Prestonsburg), who succeeded Stumbo in the House until he was ousted in the 2006 Democratic primary by former Rep. Brandon Spencer (D-Prestonsburg), will take on the ex-legislative titan. Spencer suddenly resigned from office in December, thus clearing the way for Stumbo to make an attempt to regain his seat. Stumbo is the Democratic nominee in a Feb. 5 special election to fill the vacancy created by Spencer’s resignation. The GOP’s Larry Brown, a Prestonsburg lawyer, is an underdog in the upcoming special election in the heavily Democratic district that takes in all of Floyd County.
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Democrats’ Chances to Gain State Senate Control: Slim and None
The buzz leading up to the filing deadline about Beshear heading an effort to recruit Democrats to try to take over state Senate control in this year’s election is apparently not confirmed – at least at this early juncture – after an analysis of all the Democratic candidates in the starting gate. Republicans out-number Democrats 21-15 in the 38-member upper chamber, along with the independent Leeper and the open District-30 seat subject to the Feb. 5 special election.
Only the 19 odd-numbered Senate districts are on the ballot this year, and ten of those are now held by Democrats. Thus, only nine of the 22 GOP-controlled (Leeper votes with the GOP for organizational purposes) seats are at stake this year So, to begin with, the math does not work out well for Democrats as very few Republican seats would be considered even marginally vulnerable.
Democrats’ best shot for a pick-up is probably District-9 where Sanders is retiring. (See reference above.) Democrats have a small advantage in voter registration: D-52%, R-43.1%, and other-4.8%. Not much is known at this point about the GOP candidates except Jeffery Jobe, who is a newspaper publisher. Newberry is a radio station owner, and Rogers is a lawyer. All three of these candidates are from Glasgow, by far the largest city in the district. Newberry is reputed to have already raised about $100,000 for his campaign. There are also unconfirmed reports that Rogers is being asked to withdraw and support Newberry.
Democrats may have a shot against Winters, 73, who is making the first defense of his seat. (See reference above.) Winters defeated Mayfield lawyer Dennis Null in 2004 by about 1,100 votes, but faces an adverse voter registration disadvantage: D-75.5%, R-19.8%, and other-4.7%. When Winters was elected in 2004, he may have been a beneficiary of Western Kentucky Republicans’ high-water mark. That was the year that the “same sex amendment” was on the state-wide ballot when voters decided that they wanted to amend the state constitution to out-law same-sex marriages. The voter referendum turned out masses of religious conservatives of both parties who typically vote Republican, and who probably voted for Winters in that conservative, church-going district. Winters formerly taught at Murray State University and served as Campbellsville University’s President. He is chairman of the Senate Education Committee.
There are return engagements in two districts – 5 and 23. In District-5 Sen. Carroll Gibson (R-Leitchfield) will be making the first defense of his seat against Barry Cannon of Caneyville. Gibson beat Cannon in 2004 by about 4,500 votes so Cannon has a lot of ground to make up this year compared to his first try against Gibson. Voter registration numbers on paper support an effort by Cannon: D-56.3%, R-39%, and other-4.6%.
In District-23 Democrat Kathy Groob of Covington will attempt again to unseat three-term incumbent Sen. Jack Westwood (R-Crescent Springs). Westwood defeated Groob in 2004 by about 2,700 votes. Voter registration slightly favors Democrats: D-45.4%, 41.8%, and other-12.7%. But as every political observer knows, Northern Kentucky is virtually “legendary” for its proclivity to elect Republicans at every level of government.
Even if Democrats were to unexpectedly win all four of the seats listed above, they would also have to elect Alexander in the problematic Feb. 5 special election (see reference above) and to defend two seats under assault by veteran Jefferson County Republicans – all in order to achieve Senate control. In District-19, five-term incumbent Sen. Tim Shaughnessy (D-Louisville) will no doubt face the hardest challenge in his 20-year legislative career in the likes of former Rep. Bob Heleringer (R-Louisville). Heleringer accumulated almost 30 years of service in the House before retiring to run for Lieutenant Governor on the 2003 GOP gubernatorial primary slate of former Rep. Steve Nunn (R-Glasgow). Nunn was defeated in that primary by then-US Rep. Ernie Fletcher (R-KY6) who ended up being elected Governor.
Heleringer has a reputation of being one of Jefferson County’s most intense campaigners and activist House members. Even though he has comfortably defeated many prior opponents, Shaughnessy should consider himself definitely at risk this year.
Freshman Sen. Perry Clark (D-Louisville) will defend his seat for the first time against veteran Louisville Metro Councilman Doug Hawkins who is quite well-known as a maverick politician and proven vote-getter. Hawkins makes much of the fact that he hasn’t always pleased his mainstream Republican colleagues on the council. Clark won a 2006 special election for the seat by about 950 votes, and will now run for a full-term against the unpredictable and potentially dangerous Hawkins.
The districts of both Shaughnessy and Clark have clear Democratic voter registration majorities with Democrats out-numbering Republicans by about 58%-32% with about 10% other. But these districts are quite capable of electing Republicans in that both Heleringer and Hawkins have been re-elected time and again to positions from sub-districts within the larger-populated Senate districts.
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Newspaper Editorial Comments
Jan. 31 – The Courier-Journal: “Too few options”
“…Gov. Beshear and his team probably proposed as responsible a budget as they could with the money they have. They have addressed structural imbalances that have needed addressing for years. They resisted the temptation to do something dramatic and irresponsible – set prisoners free, for example, or kick old people out of nursing homes – to enhance their case for casinos.
“There is room, of course, for haggling over details – we might, for example, take less money from higher education and add less to Medicaid – but at this stage, that really misses the point.
“The state needs new revenue, and Kentucky’s leaders need to lead the way.”
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Political Analysts’ Comments
Jan. 31 – Larry Dale Keeling in The Herald-Leader: “Beshear not shredding state’s credit card”
“…Beshear repeated his belt-tightening and checkbook-balancing remarks in his budget address. But he left off the credit-card reference. It’s a good thing he did. Talking about cutting up the credit card while handing over a budget proposal that would authorize $1.2 billion in bonded indebtedness might sound just a tad hypocritical.
“True, more than $500 million of the total would be agency fund bonds, which means the projects they finance – such as college dormitories – will generate the revenue to pay the debt service.
“But the debt service on $660 million of the bonds will come out of the General Fund.
“(Ironically, such debt service detracts from the state’s ability to cover current expenses with current revenues, thus adding to the structural imbalance of budgets).
“So, instead of getting cut up, the state’s plastic may be worn out by the number of swipes Beshear’s spending plan puts it through.
“And the project junkies in the House and Senate haven’t gotten their hands on the budget yet. By the time they indulge their habit, don’t be surprised to see Beshear’s modest attempt at moving toward more structural balance completely reversed and the state’s credit card forced into double duty.”
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