JUDGE HORNER’S ROUNDUP FOR WEEKOF FEBRUARY 16, 2008
After earlier warning lawmakers of the “financial implications of not passing” a casino gambling bill, Gov. Steve Beshear finally on Feb. 14 unveiled his vision for as many as 12 casinos throughout the state. Except for Keeneland and the Red Mile which would share a license, each of the other six racing associations across the state would be entitled to a license plus five other licenses could be received by the highest bidders for casinos to be located in the following counties: 1) Daviess; 2) Christian; 3) Kenton or Campbell; 4) Boyd or Greenup; and 5) Laurel or Whitley. The five free-standing non-race-track-assigned licenses would be available for bidding only if the voters in those counties approved casino gambling through county voter referenda, but such voter approval would not be necessary for licenses assigned to racing associations. Beshear would appoint a seven-member commission to evaluate the bids and award the five non-track licenses.
Beshear will have two bills sponsored – one, a proposed 93-word amendment to the state constitution to permit casino gambling, and the other, a 136-page “enabling legislation” bill that would pull together many details including license fee amounts, to what programs and in what percentages casino revenue would be spent, et cetera.
The first step in bringing casino gambling to the state would be passage of a proposed state constitutional amendment by at least a 60% majority in both legislative chambers – 60 House members and 23 Senate members. The second step would be placement of the proposed amendment upon the Nov. 4 general election ballot so voters could choose whether to vote for it or against it. A simple majority of all state-wide voters who vote on the issue would decide it. The enabling legislation bill referred to above would only be required to have a majority of the members in each legislative chamber to vote for it, and would not be subject to a state-wide voter referendum. The bill, of course, if passed by the legislature would become moot if the state-wide referendum failed.
If voters approve the amendment on Nov. 4, under Beshear’s plan the state could start selling licenses to the racetracks almost immediately and Beshear said that he wants the tracks altogether to pay at least $500 million in one-time license fees – an amount that could be received late in the first fiscal year (ending July 30, 2009) of the next biennial budget. In the second fiscal year of the budget, Beshear estimates that $482 million could be generated by license fees from the five non-track casinos and tax revenue from the racetracks’ casino operations that would have begun by then.
The Governor is recommending that the revenue generated from casino gambling be cut as follows: 50 percent for education, 20 percent for health care, 10 percent for city and county governments, three percent for host cities and counties, and 17 percent for a variety of other programs – including assistance for compulsive gamblers and direct subsidies for thoroughbred breeders’ incentive programs tied to racing purse pay-outs. The initial tax rate on casino operations would be 40.65% for five years, after which it would rise to 50.65% – one of the highest in the country and an amount that Beshear projected would generate $600 million annually in state revenue. The details stated above would be in the enabling legislation bill.
Both Beshear’s proposed amendment language (see column segment below) and the enabling legislation are likely to be extensively rewritten. For example, Beshear’s legislation would permit a casino at Thunder Ridge in Floyd County – a low-profile racetrack with limited racing dates. But Rep. Greg Stumbo (D-Prestonsburg), a former House Majority Leader who represents the area, is against the idea. “In an area like Floyd County and surrounding counties in the same situation where many people live right at or below the poverty level, that might lure them to spend their dollars,” Stumbo said, according to a Feb. 15 story by The Herald-Leader’s Ryan Alessi. “So I can’t be for it,” Stumbo added.
Beshear passionately made a plea that it is time for the people to decide the issue. “For nearly 15 years this issue has been discussed, debated and yet, deferred. Today, I am taking action and responding to the wishes of the vast majority of Kentuckians by sending to the General Assembly legislation that will give our citizens the opportunity to do as they have demanded – let their voices be heard on whether or not to change the state’s constitution to have limited expanded gaming,” Beshear said in a statement, according to a story by Bob White posted on Feb. 14 at kypost.com. “Public opinion research shows that more than 80 percent of Kentucky voters want the right to vote on this issue. It’s past time we acted on that demand and be responsive to the people.”
“For too long the people’s wishes conveyed through surveys and trips to casinos on our borders have been pushed aside,” Beshear said, according to a story by The Courier-Journal’s Gregory A. Hall posted by the newspaper on Feb. 14 at is courier-journal.com. “For too long this revenue option has been ignored while we’ve hemmed and hawed. It is time for resolution.”
However, some of the measure’s detractors obviously did their best not to follow etiquette ordinarily observed in the Capitol and even called Beshear “dishonest” – a strident term to use against a Governor. “This is the biggest joke I’ve seen in my life,” Senate Pres. David Williams (R-Burkesville) said, according to a story by The Herald-Leader’s Art Jester posted on Feb. 14 at Kentucky.com. “This bill will have no legs.” Williams predicted that the proposal will never pass the House where Democrats hold a 62-37 majority with one vacancy. “(Beshear) knows gaming is not going to pass. . . . He can push, threaten, coerce and do whatever he wants. It will never pass the House.”
Williams, an ardent opponent of casino gambling, even accused Beshear of being disingenuous about the issue, saying that Beshear “could have been more honest.” Williams told Jester that Beshear “wants a funding source for his attempt to have total control of the government. He’s not interested in it passing.”
And Williams even went so far as to accuse Beshear of waging this casino effort knowing that it will fail for the purpose of attracting more casino money in order to use to wrest Democratic control of the Senate away from the GOP and Williams in the 2010 election. “He’s interested in continuing to raise money from the groups to have another 527 four years from now or to raise huge amounts of money to try to take the General Assembly,” Williams said, according to a post by Crowley on Feb. 14 at his frontier.cincinnati.com blog. “When it passes, his issue is over. The gravy train stops,” Williams added. Crowley attributed Williams’ remarks to notes of an interview with Williams by The Courier-Journal’s Stephanie Steitzer which she forwarded to Crowley for publication.
“This bill is a blatant attempt to seduce governmental officials by offering them a cut of the revenue that’s generated by making losers of Kentucky citizens,” John-Mark Hack, director of the anti-gambling group Say No To Casinos, told The Associated Press’ Roger Alford for his story posted on Feb. 14 at The Cincinnati Enquirer’s nky.com. “There are no surprises in what the governor has offered.” Hack said that the state must find another way to balance its budget other than casino gambling.
“The governor has issued a Valentine’s Day massacre against the income of Kentucky’s families,” said David Edmunds, a policy analyst for The Family Foundation of Kentucky, according to Hall’s story.
“That’s totally dishonest, attempting to lure people with carrots before they even know how it might play out,” said state Council of Churches executive director Rev. Nancy Jo Kemper, according to a story by The Cincinnati Enquirer’s Patrick Crowley posted on Feb. 15 at nky.com. “I’m going to tell people, remember the lottery,” Kemper added.
“There seems to be right now few options to these big reductions that are going to have to be made without this,” Beshear said on Feb. 8 in preparing for his casino bill roll-out. “Nobody wants to make those, including me. But, unless we have a new revenue source, these reductions will go through and it will be painful,” the Governor added, according to a Feb. 9 story by The Herald-Leader’s Jack Brammer. Beshear’s budget calls for a 12% reduction in spending for most state agencies and higher education. Revenue is slowing in Kentucky as it is all over the country. If spending in the current biennium ending on June 30 were continued to the same dollar amount for the next two fiscal years, the state would be short about $900 million according to the most recent revenue projections by the Consensus Forecasting Group – a panel of state economists whose revenue estimates must be followed by Beshear and lawmakers.
Williams told Jester that the revenue problem is still “manageable” – a term that he has used for weeks – and that Beshear should spend his time with a “belt-tightening” focus to solve the state’s budget problems instead of pushing casino gambling as a revenue source.
The following language will be offered to state lawmakers as an amendment to the state constitution:
“Are you in favor of increasing state financial support for elementary and secondary education, expanding health care for senior citizens, children and others, support for local governments, and combating drug and alcohol abuse and other important programs by permitting the General Assembly to authorize up to five casinos subject to approval of the voters in the city or county where the casino is located; and up to seven casinos licenses for existing horse racing associations, all of which will be subject to the approval of a state agency created to oversee casino gaming?”
Let Kentucky Vote will be a new umbrella group for all groups that are interested in bringing casino gambling to the state. The new organization was spearheaded by the Kentucky Equine Education Project (“KEEP”) – an equine industry-specific interest group that has been lobbying for casinos for several years. KEEP will be a member along with business, teachers’ groups, and any other groups wishing to promote the issue. “We’re looking to make this as inclusive as possible,” KEEP executive director Patrick Neely said, according to a story by Crowley that was posted on Feb. 13 at nky.com. “Our goal is to build a large coalition of organizations that support voting on this issue.” Neely said that Let Kentucky Vote will be a non-profit, but will not be a 527 organization that raises money to produce TV ad’s from donors who can give unlimited amounts.
Turfway Racetrack president Bob Elliston said that Let Kentucky Vote will let “all kinds of folks” show their support for the measure. “Too often people just hone in on the horse industry in this debate,” Elliston told Crowley. “This is a reminder that the impact of gambling will be felt by thousands of people who need the money generated by gambling. It puts a broader face on it, and that’s the way it should be.” The Northern Kentucky Chamber of Commerce, already on record in support of casino gambling, joined the new organization.
Hack criticized the formation of Let Kentucky Vote. “Here we have an organization led by super wealthy people desperately trying to legalize gambling through a cynical manipulation of our citizens’ knowledge of the state constitution,” Hack told Crowley. “They won’t hesitate to mislead people. But we’re working to empower the people so they can make a truly informed decision.” Hack contends that the state constitution does not allow voters to vote on whether to legalize casino gambling. However, he has not offered a legal memorandum to explain why lawmakers would be violating the constitution to offer voters a constitutional amendment on the subject.
Crowley reported that the following is a list of the founding members of Let Kentucky Vote:
Greater Louisville Inc.
Greater Owensboro Chamber of Commerce
Jefferson County Teachers’ Association
Kentucky Chamber of Commerce
Kentucky Equine Education Project
Northern Kentucky Chamber of Commerce
United Food and Commercial Workers Local 227
United Food and Commercial Workers IN-KY Council
“Funding for education, healthcare and economic development are crucial for the future of Kentucky”, said Steve Neal, executive director of the Jefferson County Teachers’ Association and Let Kentucky Vote member, according to Crowley’s Feb. 15 post on his blog. “Our organization supports the Governor’s efforts on putting this issue on the ballot,” Neal added.
Beshear Will Not Address County Jail Under-funding This Year
Deferring now for a year a promise when he was campaigning last year, the Governor said that he does not have the money now to help heavily overburdened and under-funded county jails across the state, according to a Feb. 9 story by Alessi. “We’re not planning on introducing any additional jail legislation during this session,” Beshear told Alessi after he spoke to a Feb. 8 conference of the state County Judges Association. He said that he will form a task force to study the problem and report to him. Other task forces have studied, and then advised former governors. Beshear promised to have a county corrections system reform bill for the 2009 legislative session instead of offering a “temporary fix” this year.
Some lawmakers are ready to tackle the problem now without Beshear’s lead. “If the governor is missing in action, we’ll take action by ourselves,” said Senate Judiciary Committee chairman Robert Stivers (R-Manchester), according to Alessi’s story. “To me, this is the No. 1 issue facing county governments and county government budgets,” Stivers added. Rep. Derrick Graham (D-Frankfort) told Alessi that he will sponsor a bill on the subject that is currently being written by House Democrats to put state money into the problem. “This will be at the top in terms of priorities,” Graham said.
SurveyUSA’s second monthly poll of Beshear’s approval rating indicted a sharp drop of 10% from last month. The poll was taken on Feb. 3 of 600 Kentucky voters, was released on Feb. 4, and carries a 4.1% margin for error. Beshear was approved by 52%, disapproved by 38%, and 10% were not sure. These numbers are worse than the first poll taken between Jan. 4-6 and released on Jan. 8 which showed Beshear at 62-27-11. SurveyUSA’s Kentucky polls are co-sponsored with WCPO-TV in Cincinnati and WHAS-TV in Louisville.
The third candidate for federal office this year – this time a Democrat – has pulled out of his race. Louisville lawyer Andrew Horne, an Iraqi War veteran, announced on Feb. 11 via a web posting on pageonekentucky.com that he was withdrawing his candidacy for the Democratic nomination to run against US Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY). Horne was the first major candidate to declare for the Democratic nomination on Dec. 13 before being later joined by Louisville millionaire businessman Greg Fischer and by Louisville multi-millionaire Bruce Lunsford who got in the race on the Jan. 29 filing deadline. There are still five minor candidates also running.
Horne’s withdrawal message did not specify a reason and in part read as follows: “This decision was difficult for many reasons, not least because of the major challenges facing our Commonwealth and Country.” Horne had raised $57,634 in campaign contributions through the end of 2007 and had $51,543 on hand at that time, according to a story by The Associated Press’ Bruce Schreiner posted by The Herald-Leader on Feb. 12 at Kentucky.com.
NKU political science professor Dr. Michael Baranowski figures that Horne realized that he couldn’t possibly compete financially with Lunsford and Fischer, who both have the ability to largely self-fund a primary race against him. “Pretty obviously candidates who can self-finance have a significant advantage,” Baranowski said, according to Schreiner’s story. “That can make things pretty difficult on someone who has to raise money from other folks.” Schreiner and other reporters said that calls left on Horne’s cell phone were not returned.
According to his last financial report filed for the end of 2007, McConnell raised about $10.89 million since his last race in 2002. His report indicated that he had about $7.3 million in the bank – this after running since the Nov.6 general election through the end of the year almost daily non-stop TV ad’s in several TV markets across the state.
In 2006 Horne lost a bid for the Democratic nomination to oppose then-US Rep. Anne Northup (R-KY3). Although filing first also in that race, Horne lost to a much better known and better funded opponent – US Rep. John Yarmuth (D-KY3) who first defeated Horne by 22% in the primary and later upset Northup in the November election by 2.4% (about 5,900 votes). Horne began both races with a flurry and pisazz followed by a fund-raising announcement two weeks later about what was described as such an incredible amount of money already raised. This year, as he did in 2006, Horne apparently hit a fund-raising wall again. After the “low-hanging fruit” was picked, Horne couldn’t reach any higher. With the entry into the race in January of two potential self-funders, Horne realized that the whole idea was futile.
Republicans Chris Thieneman in Yarmuth’s district and Daniel London in retiring US Rep. Ron Lewis’ (R-KY2) district both began races and then suddenly quit. Thieneman’s campaign lasted seven days, and London’s lasted nine days.
State Sen. Brandon Smith’s (R-Hazard) Feb. 5 election to a vacant Senate seat now leaves his former House seat open, and House Speaker Jody Richards (D-Bowling Green) called a Mar. 28 special election to fill it. When the General Assembly is in session, the presiding officers in each chamber call special elections when vacancies occur among their members. It is when lawmakers are not in session that the Governor fixes the date for special elections to fill vacancies.
All of Perry County and part of Harlan County are in House District-84 where Democrats have a 76%-22% voter registration majority over the Republicans with 2% of the voters not registering with either party. Despite his party registration disadvantage, Smith managed to win the seat in 2000, and was re-elected three times. The party executive committees in each county will nominate the party nominees for the special election. The nominees do not have to be any of the candidates who filed by Jan. 29 in the party primaries to run for a two-year term. Thus, in theory, it is possible for the new Representative to be a lame duck when s/he first starts to fly for the term that ends on Dec. 31.
As the Democratic presidential race tightens and speculation starts that the nomination may be decided by “superdelegates,” Alessi wrote a Feb. 12 story about the eight Democrats from Kentucky who will be voting superdelegates – by virtue of the positions they now hold in the state – at the Aug 25-28 Democratic National Convention in Denver. A ninth superdelegate will be selected at the June 7 state Democratic convention. The group of eight known at this time are the following: Beshear, Yarmuth, US Rep. Ben Chandler (D-KY6), national committeeman Terry McBrayer, national committeewoman JoEtta Wickliffe, national committeewoman Moretta Bosley, state party chairwoman Jennifer Moore, and state party vice-chairman Nathan Smith.
Yarmuth is the only member of the group who has announced support for US Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL). McBrayer and Wickliffe are committed to US Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY), and Bosley told Alessi that she is leaning to Clinton. The others are all silent or undecided at this point on whom they intend to support.
Jim Cauley, Beshear’s chief of staff, forecasted that Beshear won’t say until the convention. “Why would we? We could be king makers,” Cauley told Alessi. Cauley was Beshear’s state-wide campaign manager last year when Beshear derailed former Gov. Ernie Fletcher’s bid for re-election by about 184,000 votes. Cauley also managed Obama’s 2004 Illinois US Senate primary campaign. Obama was then an Illinois state Senator.
Kentucky’s nine superdelegates are not bound by the results of the state’s May 20 presidential primary as the state’s other 58 Democratic delegates are. The larger group – chosen at the state convention – must vote at the national convention pursuant to a formula that will roughly allow proportional allocation of the 58 votes in conformity with how Clinton and Obama fare in the May 20 state primary. Across the country, a total of 796 superdelegates will cast votes for anyone they choose alongside about 3,614 ordinary delegates who are bound to the proportional allocation formula tied to their state’s primary or caucus results. All delegates vote altogether at the Denver convention, and the winner needs a minimum of 2,205 – a bare majority – of all the delegates’ votes.
Feb. 10 – Larry Dale Keeling in The Herald-Leader: “Governor headed wrong way”
“Gov. Steve Beshear and Lt. Gov. Daniel Mongiardo put their young administration’s political capital on the line backing a two-time loser in the 30th District senatorial race.
“Now, Scott Alexander is a three-time loser, and the Beshear-Mongiardo team knows what it feels like to wake up the morning after being on the receiving end of an old-fashioned butt-kicking…
“During last week’s hallway discussions, I heard one explanation for the 30th District fiasco that went something like this:
“You think you’ve got an election that can be won. You think Mongiardo’s popularity in the district and Beshear’s kick-butt victory last fall can make all the difference in a tight race.
“You take the first step and the second and the third. By the time you realize you were wrong, by the time you realize one person’s popularity can’t be transferred to another person, you’ve gone so far that turning back would be meaningless.
“So, you keep moving forward until you walk right off the cliff. But that’s OK. If you learn from your mistake, you can still recover and have success.
“I see some wisdom in turning around and walking away before taking that last step into thin air. But even if you buy this explanation, the key element is learning a lesson from your free fall…
“But now that the special election is over, Beshear needs to forget politics for a while and focus his full attention on policy specifically, the policy issues being debated in the General Assembly.
“Good policy decisions can help make people forget about one bad political decision. Besides, if he gets the policy thing right, the politics may be more likely to break his way in the future.”
Feb. 10 – Jill Johnson Keeney in The Courier-Journal: “A great week to be David Williams”
“Last week must have been a great week to be Senate President David Williams. When asked how he felt on a scale of 1 to 10, he wouldn’t give a straight answer. But everything certainly had gone his way.
“For those who live in Jefferson County, it’s hard to understand what Tuesday’s Republican victory in the 30th Senate District meant. Williams and the Republicans won not just in a district where 67 percent of the voters are Democrats. They beat the Governor, who campaigned hard there, and the Lieutenant Governor, whose district it had been. So there was a personal aspect to the victory – a personal sense of one-upmanship…
“It was a great week to be David Williams, because he beat the Governor and he got another Republican member in the Senate. He now has 23, a constitutional majority. The Senate now has ‘the lowest number of Democrats ever in the history of the commonwealth,’ he couldn't help but point out.
“But it was a great week for him for another reason: Because the Senate is the last stop in the budget process, Williams doesn’t have to concern himself with any of the messy little details about how to finance state government in a year where there’s a $500 million, or $600 million, or even $900 million – pick your number, because everyone else is – budget shortfall. While the House struggles to figure out how to fund social services with no money and fund education with no money, and while the Governor ruminates about how to handle big issues like the unsustainable state pension system, Williams can sit back and wait to see what they come up with. And while he’s waiting, he’s clearly having a good time.
“He can accurately claim, as he did last week, that he’s in bipartisan concert with the Governor: Unlike the House, he has no desire to raise taxes to increase funding for anything in the budget….”
Feb. 10 – The Cincinnati Enquirer’s Patrick Crowley at the newspaper’s nky.com:
“The debate started as soon as the results were official in November’s gubernatorial election.
“Was Democrat Steve Beshear’s 18-point victory an overwhelming validation of his ideas, proposals and personality – in other words, a mandate – or a harsh rejection of Republican Ernie Fletcher and his scandal-plagued administration?
“Like just about everything else in this state capital town, it all depends on whom you ask…
“Now the focus falls on last week’s state Senate election in the eastern Kentucky mountains, a race that gave Republicans another seat in their Senate majority, tarnished Beshear as a rallying point for Democrats and featured allegations of using promises of beer to buy votes.
“Republican Brandon Smith defeated Democrat Scott Alexander in a close race. The win was huge for the GOP…
“Beshear campaigned for Alexander, likely seeing the need to pick up the seat to help his gambling legislation in the unfriendly confines of the state Senate…
“Maybe, a governor has a lot at his disposal to right wrongs. And it is possible to read too much into one or even two special elections.
“But as a smart GOP operative told me last week in Frankfort, the Republicans are convinced that voters were in an anti-Fletcher mood in November, Beshear is misreading those tea leaves and overstepping his mandate.”
Feb. 11 – Ryan Alessi in The herald-Leader: “Awkward moves drain cachet”
“…Last week, the candidate for whom Beshear and Lt. Gov. Daniel Mongiardo campaigned aggressively lost a key Senate election in a district that heavily favored a Democratic candidate.
“The governor shrugged it off, saying he was ‘disappointed’ in the loss but heartened that his party notched wins in two special elections for House seats Tuesday.
“ ‘We’re going to win and lose a number of political elections while I’m in office,’ he said matter-of-factly. ‘And I fully expect that.’
“Democratic former Gov. Paul Patton said he couldn’t fault Beshear for brandishing his political power and getting involved in a race that was significant for its symbolism – Mongiardo had represented the district – and importance as Democrats tried to pull one spot closer to controlling the chamber.
“The party’s execution behind candidate Scott Alexander, however, was a different story. Sen. Ed Worley (D-Richmond) called it a ‘train wreck from top to bottom.’
“A messy internal party nomination process prompted a spurned Democratic candidate, former state Rep. Roger Noe, to work furiously against Alexander. As Noe’s anger festered, he advertised against Alexander, Beshear and Mongiardo, saying the process was ‘fixed.’
“ ‘That did leave a bad taste in people’s mouths, from observing it from a distance,’ Patton said of the nomination controversy. ‘I’m sure if they had it to do over, they would probably do it differently.’….”
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